Update 9:30PM DST

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U.S. Stock Market - If a bull market climbs a wall of worry, it’s hard to still argue this is just a bear market rally. At the bottom in early March, the bulls were being left for dead. Booyah Clown did a segment predicting 5000 on the DJIA and the perma-bears were in full agreement. The public was either in shock or quite bearish. The rally has been almost straight up, a feat that both bulls and bears have kept stating must correct or fall sharply again. As bull markets often do, they leave the vast majority in the dust at the onset.

Now many bulls and all the bears have a growing problem - the market is getting away from them. As I’ve stated for weeks now, the previous hunters have become the hunted and fresh bear meat is almost a daily occurrence now. In addition, what was left of the bull camp was timed up until now for the most part and have been waiting for this market to come back to them; but it hasn’t so far. Professional money managers now face a dilemma; do I risk serious underperformance if the market continues to get away from me or do I run into buy now? This bear/bull firepower could lead to a melt up if we get a significant bullish surprise employment number on Friday.

My target remains DJIA 9000. I’m delighted to see Asian markets outperforming as that’s where I thought one needed to be over-weighted.

Treasury Notes and Bonds - I’m extremely happy where we’re positioned on the short side of the 10yr and 30yr. They have broken down and I don’t believe we’ll see the highs again in my lifetime.

Oil - Here too, the bears have been picked apart. My target remains OPEC’s target - $75.

U.S. Dollar Index - The walking dead U.S. Dollar is weakening despite the many predictions of a new bull market. I believe we’re close to a break of key support on the U.S. Dollar Index. Stay tuned.

Gold - Continues to hold key support but needs to get above $950 in order to return to a bullish technical position.

Copper - Fundamentals continue to improve and pullbacks are strictly buying opportunities.





grandich.agoracom.com