December 29, 2009 | www.CaseyResearch.com What’s Up With Employment?
I had planned on writing a Daily Dispatch both today and tomorrow, before shutting down again for the New Year holiday.
For personal and business reasons, however, I’m going to be brief today and give the Dispatch a holiday for the rest of the week.
Because so many of you have written, for which I am deeply appreciative, and because I have news, I have a follow on to yesterday’s story about the mysterious disappearance of Myles Robinson in the Swiss town of Wengen. Unfortunately, it is not good news – his body has been found in a neighboring village, miles from where he was last seen. While the details are still sketchy, it is unimaginable and nearly impossible that he would have decided on the spur of the moment to set out on a trek across the snowy alps in the middle of night, dressed in his casual going out clothes. The mystery continues at the same time that the tragedy deepens.
The Daily Mail is providing the best coverage of the story so far. Here’s a link for those interested.
Those who knew Myles will never forget him. And I personally won’t forget the message of his young death; cherish your loved ones, and live life to the fullest. Because truly, you just never knowâ€¦
I’m now going to turn things over for a moment to Bud Conrad, who has been working ridiculously long hours on his 2010 forecasts for the upcoming edition of The Casey Report. The January edition, which will be released next week, also includes a Special Casey Report on Expatriation, featuring Doug Casey’s reflections from a life spent as a citizen of the world; Terry Coxon on expatriating your money; a collection of expat interviews from Uruguay, Portugal, Mexico and Argentina; and much more.
Thanks to a three-month,100% money-back-guaranteed trial, you can receive the next edition and the special report with no risk. Details here.
By Bud Conrad
Unemployment is expected to rise into 2011 as population grows and few new jobs are created. Population growth requires 100k+ new jobs each month just to keep the unemployment rate unchanged. The calculations for the chart below suggest that new jobs do not start appearing in quantity until 2012.
Of course, the more unemployed, the bigger the unemployment payments:
Likewise, tax revenues decline due to the fall-off in wages paid to the employed.
The combination of rising unemployment, larger unemployment payments and falling tax revenues makes the already disastrous deficit worse. For the sake of its own budget, as well as the political consequences, the government wants to get people back to work and so this will be a rising focus of the administration.
David again, still on the topic of unemployment, there is this from our own Jake Weberâ€¦
Back in July, we first showed this chart of the states that have essentially bankrupted their unemployment insurance systems, and are now forced into borrowing from the Federal Unemployment Trust Account. Since then, the number of states relying on Federal money, in order to keep sending out weekly checks, has grown from 18 to 26. And the total amount borrowed has zoomed over 100% * from $12.0 billion to $25.1 billion.
This exponential growth trend is clearly not sustainable. We suspect that 2010 will see many state tax rate hikes on employers and employees, in order to fund their respective unemployment schemes. This will only further burden business’s ability to operate profitably, and reduce the take-home pay of already stretched consumers.
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Happy New Year!
And that is it for this abbreviated edition of Casey’s Daily Dispatch and for 2009.
It’s traditional at this time of year to reflect on the year gone by, a tradition I will mostly resist. In sum, it has been a good year, full of new challenges, new friends and new perspectives on life. What more can a person ask for?
As for the year ahead, if I was a betting man, I’d place a big bet that it is going to be a very interesting year, indeed. I look forward to sharing it with you.
Until 2010 then, thanks for reading and for being a Casey Research subscriber.