Cycles of Western Civilizations from Ancient Greece to the present (and future)


NOTE: I have updated this paper somewhat since I originally wrote it over Last January/February 2009. I added a few more comments explanations and added a small part on Copenhagen. My Octave fractal for the large cycle, based on the DOW Top in 2007 called the bottom almost to the day based on time and closely followed on pattern and structure. I originally first published Figure 7 in the Fall of 2008. I updated Figure 7 when I originally released this paper. And keep it there to match the original paper. The market has continued to rally and there is another large cycle that will similarly end in a few years. In the original paper I make reference to the date range 3-16-2009 till 1-3-2010. I would note that the first date is associated with Fed Monetization and the Second with unlimited bailouts for Fannie Mae and the health care bill.

I also updated the big western civilization chart somewhat. The first was somewhat sparse as to personalities, movements, empires etc. For those who know western history many of these are not needed. The dates are the major inflection points in the overall pattern. It is also always a balance between providing details and creating clutter that makes it difficult to read.

This larger cycle is also a fractal and so one can go to a lower level and it too will have difficulties at the beginning. And that will not end until around April 2010. But from where we now stand this is the beginning of a final move of this larger cycle. The expressions of these cycles are hyperbolic. Things are going to get crazy in the Atlantic world. This is a period where a hyperinflation can manifest itself in the material world. But this cycle, going back 500 yrs is coming to an end very soon.

However, this paper is not about market predictions. The market is just one aspect of a manifestation of the cycles. Irregardless of short term (2-3 yrs) predictions the long term one remains. And that is that Western Atlantic world’s financial system has no future. It is headed for oblivion.

The Obama administration has opted to set itself against this civilization cycle. The Atlantic elites have clearly done so as well and are now starting to freak out as their geopolitical power goes up in smoke. As I indicated in my newcycle paper, Obama is their sock puppet. So at least he has an excuse. “Change we cannot believe in”.

A New Cycle

But as my newcycle paper clearly stated, anyone who goes against these cycles will be ground to powder. And on the contrary those who went with these cycles and their principles would find real support. This has proved itself beyond any doubt.

I decided to publish a little bit more of the results of my research. Some of this research has drawn on more ancient science that has been lost to modern science. It is not surprising that it has been lost as this is also part of the cycles of civilization.

It is a dynamic universe. Everything is moving. And the way things move always follows the same pattern. The pattern of Music! The ancient Greeks discovered this principle or were given it by the Egyptians. Kepler rediscovered it and it inspired his work. And so in turn has it inspired mine.

The other inspirations to this work have been Gauss and his ideas on potential. The Great Russian scientist Vernadsky and his ideas on the Noosphere. I have also been inspired by other ancient ideas from Christian and eastern philosophy and other Western esoteric sources. A modern source has been some of the writings of the US economist Lyndon LaRouche. It is a sad commentary on our culture that he is anathema to most of the US and European Elites. But then this is after all about the beginnings and end of civilizations. And the Atlantic world civilization is in the grips of a fatal catastrophe. This is not meant as a scientific paper and I do not wish to argue about minutiae. I am selectively publishing some of the results of some of my research so that some may benefit.

Previously, I have written about the Renaissance and what I have termed the rise of the Synthetic civilization[1]. In this paper I attempt to put things within a larger perspective; the entirety of western civilization from Ancient Greece to the present and its potential future.

One can view the entirety of western history from ancient Greece to the present and on into the future as one movement. And one can assign this entire movement a potential. That is from its very origins it contained a potential. And it’s subsequent movement the unfolding of that potential. Just like a rose bud contains the potential to unfold into the rose itself. And over an interval of time it will unfold to maximum beauty and from there onto a process of decay.

Now this movement follows the law of Octaves. And indeed we can trace this movement into a series of sub movements. Do-Re-Mi-Fa-So-La-Si. I call this entire movement a cosmos. This is in tune with the ancient idea of a cosmos.

One of the interesting things about this is a synchronistic effect that happens relative to the orbit of Pluto reoriented relative to the Galactic Center. I do not know entirely why this happens. Only that it exists. I have read and worked with a number of hypotheses of which I will not get into here. There are harmonic relationships that affect the entirety of the earth’s climate that are separate from the familiar earth’s seasonal cycle with the sun. In any case the synchronistic effect does exist which I will demonstrate.

As I indicated in my previous paper Civilization is really about culture. And culture is born from culture. And each culture has its own unique characteristics peculiar to itself. And there is in turn movement within each culture. Everything is dynamic.

In figure one you can see how the Octaves of western civilization are unfolding. Each of these octaves I call a civilization. This is all part of greater movement of western civilization. But each sub movement is a civilization unto themselves. So there is the ancient Greek, Roman, etc.

These sub movements of Western Civilization are: Do- Greek, Re Roman, Mi Early Christian, Fa Monastic Christian, So Medieval Christian, La Renaissance, Si Synthetic. Note that a dark age exists in the Mi-Fa interval.

Figure 1. Octaves of Western Civilization. Do- Greek, Re Roman, Mi Early Christian, Fa Monastic Christian, Sol Medieval Christian, La Renaissance, Si Synthetic. A few historical details and personalities notated. Massive Crisis always occur at defined boundaries in the expression of the octaves. King Canute really could not hold back the tides.

The figure also illustrates how the movement between and within is synchronized with the Pluto/Galactic center cycle. The longitude of Pluto relative to the Galactic center is plotted on a 360 degree scale.

The way it works is that one culture begets another culture. In effect each is an offspring of the preceding one. For the entirety of Western civilization and the Greeks (Do) in particular it is Egyptian. At a higher level the Egyptian civilization went through its own set of Octaves and its offspring is our own Western civilization. So the Roman world is a product of the Greek and the Early Christian of the Roman, etc.

In terms of the Pluto cycles there is a period of gestation prior to the 0/360 point. Then that new culture unfolds a potential until the next 0/360 point. Then there is a mini-crisis and often a new people take over. The center shifts geographically. It then rises to another and final peak and dominance at the next 0/360 point. Then there is a major crisis and collapse of the dominant culture. So there are two potentials and two unfolding cycles to that larger movement’s potential. It behaves like there is a boundary condition in terms of time. Because of these overlapping cultures only those who have studied the entirety of western civilization can readily see them. But as indicated in my previous paper they are clearly there.

The crises that repeatedly occur happen over a period of about 7 years. With the most clearly defined around 5 years. And the time period following these usher in periods of instability as the political and economic structures reorient themselves to the newer increasingly dominant culture.

I made this chart in 2006 and circulated it to a few people. Using the French collapse and defeat in Quebec in the last cycle as a reference point, one would put the end of summer 2007 as the point of a similar collapse. But this time of the entire renaissance culture and the Atlantic world that grew up around it. The way these things work is that when a potential has been reached it is OVER. And all of those things that have been supported by it get decimated. Although it is a continuous process and many years in coming it is also hyperbolic in its expression. And so likewise an intense period from the summer of 2007 to around late 2012 is a transition period to the new civilization. A period where it will become the dominant civilization on the planet.

So I was watching closely the late summer of 2007 to see if the state of affairs was consistent with this prediction of the model. Because of the nature of the renaissance civilization and its relationship to Banking and finance one would expect a major world financial crisis. The kind of crisis that involves all of the world’s money center banks. In fact they should be the epicenter of it. This did in fact turn out to be the case. And if one did look with any degree of honesty it was pretty obvious that the world’s financial system was absolutely and totally bankrupt. Of all of the world’s economists only Lyndon LaRouche called it dead on as to both the timing and the nature of it.

There is also a certain characteristic changes that happen as cycles progress. Consider the Eastern idea of the three Gunas; Raja, Tamas and Satwa. One would say that a cycle begins with the abundant energy of Rajas, comes to Sativic balance in maturity and dies in a Tamastic materialism. That is it moves from spirit towards materialism. What starts out in the bodies and minds of people become manifest in the material world. In the beginning the potential is in the people and they are alive with energy and it is the material existence that has relative poverty. In the end the potential has been used up and manifested in the material world. And then it is the people who are poor in spirit, but within a world of relative material affluence. Towards the end a process of corruption takes hold and brings it to an end like so much overripe fruit.

So today we worship man or nature and the bankers are all like socialists/communists. Those are signs of where we are in the cycles of civilization. And of course this is true of the larger movement of western civilization. We are now towards the end at Si in the larger set of octaves. So it is not entirely surprising that the center of synthetic civilization has shifted to East Asia and China. Does it not deem appropriate that the last octave in western civilization should be done by former communists? This is a natural progression of the cycle. Except for the mi-fa interval, as one moves from one octave to the next one also moves to higher levels of material expression. And we are at the very beginning of the time when the Synthetic civilization is coming into a young maturity. And that emerging balance can be seen in the leadership of the societies that are embracing it. Compare and contrast the individual members and the activities and responses of the US Federal Reserve, London and the ECB with the Central bank of China to the Crisis. Also where Asia in general and China in particular is embracing nuclear power, space exploration, building high speed rail networks, etc the Atlantic worlds response is bailout and a regressive technology orientation. Anyone with any brains can see who is corrupt and incompetent and who is behaving more soundly and intelligently. Clearly we have reached a point in western civilization where it is clear that the old Atlantic world is dead and that the Si-Synthetic note which is geographically centered in Eurasia is capable of materially supporting the entire world.

During this period of transition it is China that is taking the lead. Note that at Copenhagen, China could have stood alone against the Atlantic world. None of the other Asian/Pacific nations could have done so alone. Also, it was China that acted as the center for coalition of nations that opposed it. The British Empire never even had a chance. Nationalism, a principle of the new Synthetic civilization was credited with destroying Copenhagen. But it is a lot more than that as indicated in the newcycle paper. Note also that China was able to destroy Copenhagen by doing nothing. By not agreeing to anything. This is a sign of tremendous strength. The new geopolitical realities were absolutely clear coming out of Copenhagen.

These movements themselves are ones of unfolding potential. They too unfold according to the law of octaves. I have discovered a fractal that operates on the law of octaves and the concept of potential. If you know the time in which a potential unfolds you can predict the patterning of that potential. This is because everything moves, at all levels, according to the law of octaves. And these octaves move in harmonic relationships to other cosmoses, higher and lower. This is fairly radically different from all other cycle work.

The next charts show the expansion of that fractal using the Pluto/Galactic center synchronistic time cycles. I use the 1759-1764 interval as a basis for the boundaries. This is the time of the French loss of Quebec and defeats in India and the consolidation of the British Empire that began in 1763. Note that the collapse and defeat in Quebec during the seven years war corresponds exactly with the beginning of the collapse phase at the end of summer 2007. Also, the French defeat and collapse in India at the end of 1760 and the beginning of 1761 corresponded exactly with the collapse of the markets in the fall of 2008 and into 2009. It is exactly synchronistic with the same period during the last cycles.

Figure 2 Atlantic World 1517-2012

The 1517 date is also interesting one. This is the beginning of Protestantism and schism within the church. It is also the beginning of the collapse phase of the Medieval Christian civilization. Which was destroyed by a 150 years of religious wars. The schism was not the cause of the wars. That cause was the collapse of the medieval Christian civilization. But the wars were organized around this schism in the church at this time.

The end of the second rise is always much worse than the first. It has always been followed by manmade and even natural catastrophes. Looking at figure 1 you have to go back to just a few other point in the chart 1: A) The end of Monastic Christian civilization with the collapse of the crusades and Norman Chivalry. This is when the Knights Templers were destroyed. End of Second Byzantium. B) End of Early Christian Civilization and fall into a dark age. C) End of Roman civilization in the Crisis of the third century. And now today with the end of the Renaissance civilization we are at a similar point. So it is quite serious.
Figure 3. 1500 – Begining of Atlantic world.
Figure 4 Atlantic world Comes of Age British Empire.

I plotted this against the DOW and a reconstructed DOW going back to 1790. This uses the Cowles index and some other measurements of 19th century stock indices. I received it from someone else and had no part in its construction. This was produced independently of my work. I used the DOW and its proxy because it is a civilization and Wall Street, like London are integral parts. Also, Wall Street has it’s beginnings around 1790 and therefore a product of the Atlantic world. The history of Wall Street in the US puts it clearly within the orbit of the British Empire. The behavior of Wall Street in both creating and responding to the world financial crisis makes it clear that this is so.

Figure 5. Close up of look at British empire. Dow and reconstructed Dow as proxy.

One of the big problems the US faces is that both Washington and New York are Atlantic World cities. And the economic and political elites of these cities are members of the Atlantic world. Many are members of all of these Transatlantic institutions. And they are all doomed because when the bigger cycle of culture of which they are just an expression comes to an end they too will be cut down. It is a law of these cycles that when a higher process that contains a lower ends the lower process is just cut off.

There are other cycles and potentials I have discovered in the data and these are not shown. One of these is responsible for the 1929 market bubble. That was contained within these larger cycles and what is happening now is MUCH larger.

There are always difficulties at the beginning of a new cycle. And this is expressed in the fractal. Although it is in 1763/64 that the new cycle begins it is not until around 1790 that the skies begin to clear. Note that 1790 is a critical year. The British opium trade is launched which is key to British finance. US Constitution has just been implemented. Hamiltonian Banking system begins. Wall Street begins trading in this time period. Many innovations in British centered industrial revolution also occur. What are to be the two pillars of the Atlantic world are now solidly in place.

If you look at the fractal even the 68 phenomena is there. The first sub peak is late 1962 (10/22/1962). The Kennedy assassination occurred the next year. The second is January 1968. What this represents within the larger fractal is the end of a line of development. The chaotic late 60s and 70s ensue in the aftermath. Out of this emerges a new (and final) line of development to the recent peak.

This uses a log of the DOW data. This brings out another interesting point about these cycles. And that is that these cycles are not linear. We live in a hyperbolic universe. There are no straight lines.

Figure 6 shows the end of the world dominance of the Atlantic world and the rise of the coming Eurasian world. I do know from studying history that sometimes potentials are cut short. Some civilizations are destroyed before they reach their allotted potential. And I know we are at one of those points right now. So it is possible that we will not reach the maximum potential of the larger movement of Western civilization.

Figure 6. End of Atlantic world dominance and the coming Eurasian world.

One of the things my studies makes clear is that the British Empire is going down no matter what. There is no possibility of recovery for it. The British Empire’s potential is all but used up. Like all empires before it has had its day in the sun. At their end they may even be able to put up a impressive display of material assets. But inside it is all rotted out and used up. Only the Synthetic civilization has the ability to support the whole world economy. The center of the world economy is transitioning to a new people. Like all before them they want their day in the Sun. And they can and will take it. Go back to the beginning of western civilization with the Greeks. When they were threatened by the Persians with their overwhelming material assets. Did they do the logical thing and submit or did they fight? They fought and won. And this pattern is repeated over and over.

Boundaries of time. What appears to be the case is that there are boundaries as to time created by the whole movement as well as within. All of which are governed by the law of octaves. This creates boundary conditions. Things at lower levels simply get cut off at the boundary. So people can make choices but they cannot determine outcomes that are bounded by higher processes.

The other thing is that there is also the possibility of creating a whole new set of octaves. This would be a new set of octaves as large as the original Western or Egyptian one. Also we have experienced in the west what I call a “break in culture”. There is no longer any sense in the population of where we have come from and where we are going. Maybe now is the time when that is possible. That America itself is a product of the larger movement of Western civilization.

I hope this helps everyone orient themselves as to where we are in world history and see better the way out of our predicament. Or at least prepare themselves for the coming changes.

I do not understand why the synchronistic effect with the Pluto/galactic center exist. I do have some hypotheses as to why. It is likely found within harmonic relationships of a lower cosmos to higher cosmos.

Declines have their own movement in terms of Octaves. But in a different kind of space. Figure 7 shows the decline from the Dows all time high. There are other cycles that are not shown that also influence this. But this is the dominant cycle for the initial decline.

Figure 7. Octaves of Dow decline

Near term prediction is that the Chinese and East Asia in general should find some support right now. When you are at the end of something you are also at the beginning. And that beginning should be around 2-28-2009 or so. But as indicated in my previous article the shift is to East Asia.

And there should be a near term rally in the DOW until 3-16-2009 or so. But it is not a buy for several reasons. First due to the higher fractal being at a high level it suffers a decline from 3-16-2009 till 1-3-2010. Because of the hyperbolic nature of these fractals, and its current level, this is really a significant decline. Secondly the other cycle is in the basement. Also, not shown some smaller and intermediate cycles are moving down. And other longer term ones are also low. In particular the seasonal cycle will also move down into fall 2009. They may be feeling good right now but the Obama administration is likely to find itself in very serious trouble during this period. Looking Further out the post 2012 period should be a period of great instability both is terms of the world economy, nations, political entities and in international relations. Just as the post 1763-64 period was a period of such instability. Only much worse for what has been the center of the Atlantic world. This is because it is the end of an entire note of an octave and not just an intercycle like the last one in 1763-64. These only happen every 300 to 500 years. And the way the cycles work at all levels is that whatever was supported by the cycle loses all support when the cycle ends. They are cut off and die when the larger cycle that contains them comes to an end. So today everything in the world that is part of the Atlantic world civilization from Columbus on in the Atlantic world is coming to an end.

Note that in the longer run my octave fractals indicate there is a breakdown until towards the 2045 time period. Even with an optimistic assumption. This is much of the life of the upcoming generation. Needless to say people also need to reconsider their stock investment and retirement plans. And hope that the Federal government remains solvent and viable. Unfortunately, the way congress, and the Obama administration is currently operating on the bailouts it currently does not look good. Instead of orienting policy towards where there is support, the Synthetic civilization, they are still trying to revive the now dead renaissance one. Hopefully, post 3-16-2009 they will abandon that folly under the pressures of survival.

Ed Moran
Signal Space, Inc.

[1] Synthetic civilization. Rodney Colin, Theory of Celestial influences. One of the few references. I do not want to assume credit for coining the name of the Synthetic civilization, its nature or sequences. Not a scientifically rigorous book but nevertheless based on some scientific facts and correlations. A strange but also very interesting book, It is rich in some powerful and useful ideas. I have significantly extended his ideas on the sequence of civilizations and cycles. Particularly in the areas of cycles, civilizations and their structure, timing and transitions.