By Matt Badiali, editor, S&A Resource Report Thursday, October 28, 2010
Can you turn $1,000 into $1 million in just a few years?
You can if you time a bull market in uranium stocks correctlyâ€¦
In September 2003, an Australian uranium company, Paladin Energy, traded for just 1¢ per share. Things were horrible for the uranium industry.
Back then, uranium sold for around $11 per pound. But it cost the industry $15 per pound to produce. That meant uranium companies lost $4 on every pound they sold. Except for expert contrarian investors, nobody wanted to own uranium stocks.
But 2003 was the very beginning of a huge bull market in uranium. By 2005, the uranium price had climbed to $20â€¦ By the end of the year, it was selling for $35 a pound. Investors went wild for uranium plays.
In January 2005, Paladin Energy was up to 47¢. That’s a 4,600% gain from 2003 levels. By the end of 2005, it hit $2 per shareâ€¦ a 19,900% gain in just 30 months.
The uranium bull market peaked in 2007. Paladin topped out at $10.40 per shareâ€¦ an incredible 100,000%-plus gain. Every $1,000 invested turned into more than $1 million.
The uranium bull died in June 2007, thanks in part to the global economic collapse. The ride down was steep. Uranium fell from $136 per pound to $40 per pound in just two years.
But there’s a new bull market getting started right now. The price just broke out to a new 52-week high. And the next Paladin is getting ready to take off. Before I get to that, let me explain what’s driving the new move in uranium pricesâ€¦
The bull case for uranium the chief fuel for nuclear reactors is simple: Emerging Asian nations, particularly China and India, are Westernizing. Their populations want air conditioning, refrigerators, iPods, and YouTube. That means electricity.
To meet its growing electricity demand, China plans to build 60 new nuclear reactors within the next 10 years. China’s high-growth cousin, India, needs 40 new reactors in the next 20 years. That would increase the number of nuclear power plants in the world by 23%.
This new Asian nuclear boom is expected to be the largest period of nuclear power growth since OPEC’s oil embargo. At its peak, back in the 1980s, the nuclear industry started up a new reactor every 15 days. By 2015, we could see a new reactor coming online every five days.
Both China and India understand the implications of that growth. According to Bloomberg, both countries are stockpiling the fuel. China could purchase more than twice as much uranium as it will use this year. The proposed reactors in China alone could consume more than 30% of the uranium mined today. That’s why the country signed a 10-year, 10,000-ton deal with giant uranium miner Cameco.
But there is a real lack of new, near-term uranium production. That means supply won’t increase as much as demandâ€¦ and uranium prices will rise.
In fact, it’s already begun. A small uranium firm I just recommended to my S&A Resource Report readers has climbed 50% for us in just two months. Many other uranium plays, like blue chip uranium miner Cameco (CCJ), are entering uptrends as well. But it’s still early days and the masses haven’t caught on. That’s our opportunity. It’s unlikely you’ll score an unbelievable 100,000% gainâ€¦ but hundreds of percent gains are easily within reach.
We have time to sleuth out the great junior miners and buy cheap. Focus on the little things: management’s experience, burn rate (the amount of cash spent versus amount of cash in the bank), and projects.
The big money will go to experienced teams with high-grade deposits near people, roads, and other mines. That’s what the expert contrarian investors are looking for now.
P.S. I have a handful of the world’s best uranium stocks in the S&A Resource Report portfolio. They offer hundreds even thousands of percent upside in the coming years. You can learn about a subscription to the Resource Report and another one of my favorite ideas by clicking here.
THE STOCK MANIA OF THE MONTH
Today, we note the stock mania of the month: rare earth elements.
“Rare earth elements” is the name of an exotic group of metals, including strange-sounding members like “lanthanum” and “cerium.” These little-known metals are crucial components of electric car batteries, wind turbines, and advanced electronics (the kind in your iPod or cell phone). In a strange twist of geology and geopolitics, China holds a virtual monopoly on these metalsâ€¦ producing around 95% of the world’s supply.
China is making big news right now by reducing rare earth exports in order to conserve its supply and squeeze other countriesâ€¦ which is causing a global scramble to build non-China reserves. It’s also causing a mania in the handful of publicly traded rare earth playsâ€¦
Leading this mini-mania is Molycorp (MCP). MCP controls the largest developed rare earth deposit in North America. The company went public at $14 per share just a few months agoâ€¦ and has ridden a hype wave to a 150% gain. Other rare earth names have made similar crazy moves during this time.
Like all manias, this one will end badlyâ€¦ with ridiculous valuations, awesome marketing hype, and massive share declines. If you’re in this move, don’t forget your stop lossesâ€¦